Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
